Why is trading so hard?
How come trading is so hard? Take ZANE. First Tim says it is a stellar short, then he covers March 11 early. Now it is a buy signal. What gives...
Trading isn't difficult, you just need to be agile...too many people look at a company like ZANE and its 1,000% runup and crappy fundamentals and say short it forever no matter what...those of us who have been in the business long enough know the worst companeis can become the best stocks to buy due to short squeezes...although any ZANE breakout will likely ultimately fail and the stock should drop big in the coming weeks, that doesnt mean its not a good buy from 3 to possible 4 now that the shorts and sellers have failed and the momentum on the pendulum switches to favor longing here at....just like buying AENY at 4.60ish when it went to 5.40 in a few days even though that surge ultimately failed...that said this strength could just be a fakeout...just be open to the fact that anything can happen, which is why I have had such great success trading like a coward....goal is to be short or long in the right direction when there are highly reliable setups
I wrote that, not because I do not know, but because I DO know.
I wished to start a critical thread here.
Trading is "hard" because as I often discuss in chat http://timalerts.com/chatroom/ in the main window and in PMs, because trade management is inherently a dynamic, not a static proposition.
What this means is you have to remain flexible, and adjust to changing conditions on the ground, not cling to preconceived biases about what SHOULD happen or what you WANT to happen, etc.
A lot of new Tim Alerts subscribers simply do not understand this.
In ZANE, the stock could not hold past multiple spikes. The volume on each was less over the past 2 sessions. This morning, a short squeeze appeared and the total volume on the spikes was bigger by far than the other failed spikes. This might be early shorts throwing in the towel after too much pain, and a climax, but remember you have to take into account on any play your margin requirements, especially in connection to your position size, etc.
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, ask the tech bubble burst shorts in 1999-2000 about that. They were right, but it did not matter when they had to capitulate.
Once Tim conservatively covered, the stellar short became a buy signal, in THIS type of case. Once again, the market and stocks within it are dynamic, not static, and you have to react and adjust to changes in condition on the ground. Trading like a castrated choir boy is sometimes the better part of valor.
Sykes HAD to cover, proved skill by doing so, then got attacked over doing the dynamically correct action! Others still thinking "short" robotic-ally probably missed the buying signal opportunity on the "pain ending" short cover rally. Newbies not finding shares to short probably also got mad over the rally being missed in a spot situation long, because again they could not dynamically adjust to affairs.
You cannot simply cling mindlessly to chart Technical Analysis levels like 2.80 on ZANE until the cows come home, you have to learn the game and apply *judgment* to changing conditions as need be. You cannot put day trading on auto pilot.
It is noteworthy that the best traders do this, and treat each trade with a degree of uniqueness, and can admit when they are "wrong" (which often just means things changed significantly since they entered a play) and not stubbornly stay in a play to be proven right.
Sykes did this. He does it consistently. No wonder his returns are so good.
It might confuse some newbies, but these subs can take some heart in learning from these examples about how to play the game like a pro...
Big T hit it right on the head with his comments. You have to trade what you see is happening....not what you're expecting to happen. I made the mistake of trading my expectations rather than what I was seeing today with ZANE....ended up losing big on a trade I should've broken even on. Fortunately I made up for the loss with some good trades in my other accounts.
This game favors experience above all else. The more you see all the potential things that can happen to you in this game, the better off you are. But it takes a long time to get there....which is why the game is hard. I know Tim says it's easy, but he's been trading for over 10 years and has seen it all.....so he automatically knows how to react in given situations. That's also why, although Tim can put you on the right path, you eventually have to learn for yourself through experience, because he can't teach you everything. It is hard work to get really good at trading....most people aren't willing to put the hard work into it.
I have to agree about being both flexible AND always paying attention - this is where a community of traders/chat rooms really helps. Yesterday I was up 1,070.00 on a position (scalping all day....small 200-600 position sizes) I had been shorting it all the way down on spikes...working beautifully. All of a sudden another trader noticed someting that I did not - a HUGE buyer at a support level - sent me a alert - not quick enough I was not able to cover everyting and lost almost 500.00 in about 30 seconds - it ran up THAT fast -- BUT without that notice I would have almost certainly went from 1070 to a NEGATIVE number. Now, if I had been pay attention to level 2 I would have seen this and at least covered BEFORE it hit this OR even flipped and been able to ride this almost full point all the way up....I was cocky....actually I had just made a comment about 45 ins before that "ITMN is my B&^%C today!" - Yeah? It would have hammered me if not for the good eyes of another trader taking time out of his/her day to warn my sorry ass!
So yes, trading IS hard - but obviously rewarding - I ended the day about 1,500.00 up -- in the end I guess "ITMN WAS my B&^%H!" afterall!
I thought about this the other day, in a parallel universe where everyone wanted to buy high and sell low, trading for a profit would be a piece of cake!
For the record, I get the same criticism when posting my Watchers on my blog http://traderbigt.blogspot.com/
I post for a short sell profit taking dump set-up on a cheap stock, the stock gaps UP on strong volume, someone E-mails or PMs me in chat http://timalerts.com/chatroom/ and complains, often having entered trhe short illogically, without a cue signal in real time to take the play!
Most of these plays, just like Tim's Tim Alerts Watch List, are POTENTIAL longs or shorts, not instructions to blindly enter in the direction of the original recommendation, without confirmation cues that occur in actual play as the stock is being traded and building its intraday chart.
You do not short a "mini-novae" set up when it gaps up on strong volume, giving no sign of this being the day when you finally get a nice red candle on the daily.
You are waiting for the day it begins to crack to enter the play, clues of which are a massive spike then a huge sell off, green to red price action and hold below that, which often continues fading, both of which are cues to consider shorting.
You have to take what the market gives you, not what you want or think should happen...

